英國《金融時報》傑夫代爾(Geoff Dyer)北京報導 2008-10-21











































 



 



China announced yesterday new steps to boost the property market and help exporters after third quarter growth fell to 9 per cent, the slowest pace in five years and well below forecasts.



中國昨日公佈了一系列提振房地產市場和幫助出口商的新舉措。此前,中國第三季度經濟增幅降至9%,為5年來最低水準,且遠低於預期。



The Chinese State Council also said it was planning increases in infrastructure spending after the growth rate of the economy fell for the fifth quarter in a row.



中國國務院還表示,在中國經濟增長速度連續第五個季度下滑後,國務院計畫擴大基礎設施支出。



For much of the last year, China had seemed immune to the problems in international credit markets however in recent weeks there have been growing signs that the economy might slow more sharply than expected, which has contributed to falling commodity prices.



去年的大部分時間,中國似乎沒有受到國際信貸市場問題的影響,但最近幾周,越來越多的跡象表明,中國經濟的放緩可能會比預計更為嚴重。中國經濟增長放緩在一定程度上導致大宗商品價格下跌。



The 9 per cent expansion in gross domestic product in the third quarter was below the consensus forecast of 9.7 per cent and down from 10.1 per cent in the second quarter, although the figures were affected by restrictions on factories introduced during the Olympics to reduce pollution. In the first nine months of the year, the economy expanded by 9.9 per cent, down from 11.9 per cent in the whole of 2007.



中國第三季度國內生產總值(GDP)增長9%,低於9.7%的普遍預測和第二季度的10.1%,不過,中國在奧運期間為減少污染而採取的限產措施,對這些資料產生了一定影響。今年前3個季度的GDP增幅為9.9%,比去年全年的11.9%有所回落。



Exports have held up much better than expected so far this year, expanding 23 per cent in the third quarter in dollar terms as Chinese companies discovered new markets in booming emerging economies. Yet many of those countries are beginning to suffer from their own financial crises or falling commodity prices.



今年迄今為止,中國的出口狀況遠好於預期。由於中國企業在蓬勃發展的新興經濟體找到了新市場,中國第三季度以美元計算的出口額增長了23%。不過,這些國家中有許多已開始受到自身金融危機或大宗商品價格下跌的影響。



Economists remain divided over whether China is witnessing a welcome breather after the hectic expansion of recent years or the beginning of a prolonged slide in growth rates that will deepen the expected slump in the global economy.



中國正在見證的是近年急速擴張後受歡迎的短暫休整,還是將加劇全球經濟衰退的增長率長期下滑的開端?對於這個問題,經濟學家存在意見分歧。



Qing Wang, economist at Morgan Stanley, said the measures announced by the State Council were “the beginning of a systematic approach adopted by policy-makers to boost economic growth and prevent an economic hard landing”.



摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)經濟學家王慶表示,中國國務院公佈的措施,是政策制定者為刺激經濟增長、防止經濟硬著陸而採取的系統性舉措的開始



In one of the more downbeat prognoses, Sherman Chan, economist at Moody's ratings agency, said many businesses were struggling amid weakening external demand. She added: “ China 's growth miracle has finally ended.”



在一些更為悲觀的預測中,評級機構穆迪(Moody's)的經濟學家陳穎嘉(Sherman Chan)表示,面對外部需求的日益疲軟,許多企業已陷入困境。她補充表示:中國的增長奇跡終於結束了。



Other economic data presented a more mixed picture, with industrial production continuing to slow sharply while consumer spending increased and inflation eased.



其他經濟資料呈現出的是更為複雜的局面:在工業生產持續大幅放緩的同時,消費支出增加,通脹得到緩和。



Industrial production increased by 11.4 per cent in September compared to the year before, the slowest rate of increase since 2002. However, there were some positive indications of underlying strength in the economy including a 17.1 per cent increase in real retail sales, up from 16.8 per cent in August. The rate of consumer price inflation continued to drop to 4.6 per cent, from 4.9 per cent, while factory-gate inflation also moderated from 10.1 per cent in August to 9.1 per cent.



9月份工業增加值同比增長11.4%,是自2002年以來的最慢增長速度。不過,也有一些樂觀指標體現了中國經濟的潛在活力,包括實際零售額增長17.1%,高於8月份的16.8%。居民消費者價格漲幅繼續回落,從上月的4.9%降至4.6%,工業品出廠價格漲幅也從8月份的10.1%回落至9.1%



China is beginning to suffer its own property market downturn, which could have a substantial impact given the large role real estate investment plays in the economy. Prices began to fall in August compared with the previous month and figures for units of housing sold and property under construction have shown significant drops.



中國的房地產市場已步入低迷時期。鑒於房地產投資在經濟中的重要作用,房地產市場的低迷可能會對經濟產生重大影響。8月份的環比價格出現下跌,房屋銷量和在建房資料均明顯下降。



 



譯者/董琴


markyslin 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()